Future Global Temperature Prediction

Ice Core Temperature Data with Future Projection

I replicated the temperature data for the last ice age and overlayed it on the current Holocene interglacial temperature record. This graphically shows three interesting things:

(1) The Holocene peak temperature to date is significantly lower than that seen in the last interglacial.

(2) The precipitous temperature decline seen after the last three interglacial peaks has not occurred in the Holocene so far. Instead there has been a gradual decline since the Holocene peak with relatively constant temperature. This is the time in which our civilization has developed.

(3) The temperature decline which will lead us to the next glacial epic is overdue. Based on the previous temperature record, this decline should be precipitous, as shown by the red line temperature projection above.

Since these temperature fluctuations are based on solar variation driven by changing orbital eccentricity, earth axis tilt and precession (Milankovitch cycles), It is almost certain that they will continue with a nearly identical pattern to those seen in the past. If man's release of CO2 is warming the climate, it is fighting a downward temperature trend that would appear to be overwhelming.

Although I do not know for certain, I am willing to bet that the computer climate models that are predicting global warming are using a constant solar input and not taking the Milankovitch cycles into account. If there were a model that took the variation in solar input into account, would it show that man's environmental impact has been to stabilize global cooling and save us from the coming ice age, or would it show that man's impact has been to induce global warming leading to anomalously high and dangerous temperatures for our planet, as has been claimed. I feel that almost certainly, the former is correct and the latter is really bad science.